Turkish Airlines: an overwhelming ambition!

Slowly but surely Turkish Airlines is establishing itself as a major player in the global aviation landscape with a fleet that is expected to double in the next 10 years. But is this ambition realistic?

It’s funny, but when we talk about Turkish Airlines with people who don’t follow the airline business, we are often met with incredulous looks and even questions such as “is this a serious airline? This is getting better with the numerous communication campaigns aimed at improving the soft power of the Turkish airline (sponsor of the Champions League of soccer and the Euroleague of basketball) but we have the impression that apart from those who have flown with it, people have only a vague idea of the quality of its product and especially of its size and ambition.

A recent status change

While the airline was founded in 1933 as Havayolları Devlet İşletme İdaresi (State Airways Administration) it stagnated for a long time and remained a second-rate airline before it began its march forward.

Until 1956 it was a rather poorly equipped airline, exclusively dedicated to domestic routes. It is only then that it decides to increase and modernize its fleet and the name “Turkish Airlines Company” (Türk Hava Yollari anonim ortakligi). A name that the airline has recently considered taking back, but it seems that this initiative has not been followed up. However, the ICAO code of the airline has remained THY and it is often referred to as such. It will become Turkish Airlines in 1964 in a desire for internationalization that required a name readable abroad.

But the airline is stagnating and has many safety problems that tarnish its reputation and hinder its growth. In 1974 a DC 10 of the airline crashed shortly after takeoff from Orly (flight 981) and all 346 passengers and crew members perished in the accident. Then from 1975 to 1984 the ASALA (Armenian Secret Liberation Army) committed attacks against Turkish interests throughout the world. The offices of the airline were targeted several times and, once again, it was at Orly that an attack against the check-in counters of Turkish Airlines caused 8 deaths and 56 injuries. When you add to this the political instability that the country is experiencing, the image of the airline is not good and its development is very difficult.

It was at the beginning of the 20th century that everything changed. The airline was partially privatized and benefited from the boom in world air transport. It is renewing its fleet with the purchase of Boeings 737 and Airbus A340. Since then, its growth has been uninterrupted despite the crises that have affected the sector. In 2008 it is the 7th largest European airline in terms of fleet size.

Turkish Airlines today

According to the rankings, the data varies a little depending on the criteria and the period taken into account but today Turkish Airlines is in the top 3 European airlines in terms of fleet and passengers carried (some rankings count Air France and KLM or the entire Lufthansa Group as one airline). It is, in terms of fleet size, around 10th in the world.

Evolution of the Turkish Airlines fleet over time – source : Airfleets.net

On the other hand there is a record that the airline holds without any doubt it is the record number of countries served with 269 destinations in 121 countriesThis gives it the largest international network in the world (some US airlines serve more destinations but have far fewer international routes).

But if there is one thing to note about Turkish Airlines, it is that it is no longer the second-rate airline with questionable quality that we knew in the 80s. If there is one thing that everyone agrees on and that you may have noticed while reading our flight reviews on Turkish Airlines it is the quality of its service.

It is a subject on which it collects awards. In the Apex Awards it has the label “World Class Airline” and receives 5 stars. On Skytrax side and even if we take this ranking with a pinch of salt and even if the relations between Skytrax and Turkish Airlines have not always been good: in 2022 7th best airline in the world, best European airline, best catering in business class.

Which, in our experience with the airline, is anything but undeserved.

But Turkish Airlines is also a beautiful work tool: the new airport of Istanbul which advantageously replaces the old Ataturk which was a brake on the development of the airline.

Today it is ranked 6th best airport in the world by Skytrax but, as proof that these rankings are to be taken with care, Paris CDG is 5th.

In any case, this airport, which is very pretty, immense (this is the main criticism that has been levelled at it, as you walk a lot), and totally oversized for the airline’s current needs, was precisely designed to accompany its growth. When Air France-KLM sees Schiphol as a handicap, when the construction of a new runway at Heathrow is overdue, it is a major advantage for the future.

Eventually the Istanbul airport will have an annual capacity of 200 million passengers, compared to Dubai’s 92 million! And its geographical position allows it to claim the role of a hub between Europe and Asia.

But precisely, for this tool to make sense, the airline must grow…

A fleet doubled in 10 years

Because even if we suspect that the COVID has, at Turkish Airlines as elsewhere, postponed certain ambitions to a later date, we did not see anything coming in terms of aircraft orders or even a message about the airline’s ambitions. This was remedied last week when the airline unveiled its plans for the next 10 years leading up to its centennial year in 2033.

– The airline aims to operate 435 aircrafts in 2023 and 800 in 2033. Today its fleet is 390 aircrafts. It is therefore a question of doubling in size.

– It intends to serve 400 destinations compared to 269 today.

– It plans to carry 170 million passengers, compared to 85 million today.

– It aims to have 150,000 employees, up from 75,000 today.

– It plans to upgrade the cabin of its entire fleet.

– Finally, it plans to increase its low-cost subsidiary AnadoluJet from 57 to 200 aircrafts.

To realize how impressive these figures are you have to look at the fleets of other airlines. The airlines with the largest fleets are American, which is justified by the size of their domestic market: 937 aircrafts for American Airlines, 892 for United, 943 for Delta.

In addition, Emirates, known for its powerful hub, has only 264 aircrafts, mainly wide-body jets. Lufthansa has 326 and Air France 209.

A realistic ambition?

Let’s take the elements of the announcement one by one

Serving 400 destinations

This is ambitious but totally realistic, especially since Turkish Airlines, unlike Qatar Airways which we talked about recently, or Emirates, does not mind opening and operating lines with small modules (A320, B737…) even if it means multiplying the number of rotations and mixing twin-aisle and single-aisle aircraft according to the slots.

It is much easier to open new destinations with this approach, but you need to have the aircrafts to do it.

As for the increase in personnel and the number of passengers, it is proportional, everything is linked.

Renewing its cabins

This is excellent news because it is perhaps the weak point of the Turkish Airlines product, especially on the twin-aisle. Its single-aisle aircrafts are indeed, even for the worst of them, as good as those of any other airline. As for their business class, it is far superior to those of their European competitors.

IMG_4231
Business class cabin of a Turkish Airlines A321Neo
IST-CDG TK1825 Eco
Economy cabin of a Turkish Airlines 321Neo

On the other hand, the situation is not as rosy for its twin-aisle aircrafts. While the cabins of the recent B787 and A350 are up to market standards, those of its A330s and B777s are starting to date, mainly in business class. At least everything is full flat but no full access and a design that looks old. So it’s great to hear that a retrofit is planned.

IMG_3807
Business class cabin of an A330 Turkish Airlines
IMG_4326
Business class cabin of a B787 Turkish Airlines

That’s 70 aircrafts to retrofit, nothing insurmountable.

Let’s just add one thing, it’s that no matter the aircraft the soft product is of very high level with very good crews and an excellent catering. You will also get hot meals no matter how long the flight is and what class of travel is (even on a 40-minute Istanbul Izmir in economy).

Growing to 800 aircrafts

This is where you have the most doubt because it means placing an order for more than 300 aircraft because the airline has very few on order at the moment. However, as we have already explained, the Airbus and Boeing backlogs are already full for the next 10 years. Added to this are supply chain and production problems which mean that both manufacturers are constantly announcing delays!

Even if a megorder is placed immediately, it is difficult to see how they can be delivered on time! And it is not by taking back aircrafts that should have been delivered to others, like Aeroflot, that this will change much.

On the other hand, in 10 years, the A330s and B777s will not have to be replaced immediately because they are still young: 8 years on average for the 777, 11 for the A330.

Today Turkish Airlines has a balanced fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircrafts: it operates A319s, A321s, A330s, A350s, B737s, B777s and B787s.

Turkish Airlines fleet – source: Airfleets.net

That’s not going to change, because the airline is happy with the balance that means one manufacturer’s problems don’t totally disrupt its supply.

So we can expect orders of probably close to 200 aircraft quickly from each of the two manufacturers, but whether they will be delivered on time…we have our doubts.

Bottom line

Turkish Airlines has the ambition to position itself as one of the world’s air transport hubs in the same way as Dubai and has significant investment plans to achieve this.

However, if the airline gives itself the means to achieve its ambitions, it is difficult to see how the timing could be kept. This also assumes that no crisis intervenes in the meantime, which in the airline industry is a very rare thing.

What about you? Do you think that Turkish Airlines’ plans are realistic?

Have you ever traveled with them? What do you think about it?

Tell us in the comments.

Image : A330 Turkish Airlines by EvrenKalinbacak via Shutterstock

Bertrand Duperrin
Bertrand Duperrinhttp://www.duperrin.com
Compulsive traveler, present in the French #avgeek community since the late 2000s and passionate about (long) travel since his youth, Bertrand Duperrin co-founded Travel Guys with Olivier Delestre in March 2015.
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