The Boeing 777X, successor to the famous 777, was scheduled to make its first commercial flight in 2021. Between technical problems and a health crisis, its release is constantly being postponed, to the point of asking whether such an aircraft still makes sense in an aviation crisis.
Why the 777X?
The 777X is destined to succeed the long-haul star of the last 30 years: the 777. It’s important to understand that the 777 has really changed the face of air transport: it’s put an end to the hegemony of four-engine jets on the long-haul market. Combining longer range, greater carrying capacity and lower costs it’s the one that keeps pushing the limits of ETOPS certification which enables twinjets to serve more and more routes without having to make detours to stay close to the coast, dug the A380’s grave even before it arrived on the market, paving the way for the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, which today embody a new generation of long-haul aircraft.
His efficiency has earned it the nickname of “money maker“, which pretty much says it all.
But having begun its career in the 90s, the 777 is of course less modern than the B787 or A350 mentioned above. For Boeing, this meant upgrading its aircraft to something quieter and less fuel-hungry, while retaining the Triple 7’s key features: its capacity to carry almost as many passengers as the A380 with just two engines.
Today, a 777 carries almost as many passengers as an A380 and a B747, both of which have ceased or are about to cease production, and only the Airbus A350 in its A350-1000 version can compete, although this is not the best-selling version of the new flagship in the Airbus range.
So, without going into too much detail, the 777X is just as big, lighter, more efficient and more comfortable B777.
It boasts a number of distinctive features, such as the GE9X engine, which consumes 10% less fuel than the 777’s GE90s while delivering more thrust, and is now the largest engine on the market in terms of size, as well as delivering the most thrust. With its 3m40 diameter, it’s the size of a Boeing 737 fuselage.
To improve lift and reduce fuel consumption, the aircraft’s wings are 20% longer than those of its predecessor, i.e. 3.5m longer per wing. 7m extra width for the aircraft! This of course posed manoeuvrability problems on the ground, so Boeing decided to equip its new aircraft withretractable wingtips once on the ground.
So you can see why the 777X was eagerly awaited by airlines and fans alike!
By the end of 2019, i.e. before the start of the health crisis, Boeing had checked-in 276 orders for the 777X, with Emirates and Qatar Airways as its biggest customers.
The 777X: launch postponed several times
We all know that launching a new aircraft is never an easy task, whether at Boeing or Airbus.
The original schedule for the 777X included a maiden flight in 2019 for commercial service entry in 2021.
But things have changed in the meantime.
Firstly, for engine-related reasons, its first flight did not take place in March 2019, but in January 2020.
Then there’s the “737 MAX” effect: the 777X has undergone the same certification procedures as its “little brother”, and for this reason is likely to face tougher procedures before entering service.
Last but not least, the health crisis has had a major impact. As the global aviation industry was grounded, airlines logically postponed or even cancelled orders for numerous aircraft (and not just the 777X), while at the same time being unable to avoid a longer-term reflection on the relevance of a very wide-body aircraft, at a time when some predict that the market will not return to its previous level, and others want to prevent this for environmental reasons.
As a result of these uncertainties, the order book for the 777 has shrunk to 191 units to date.
The 777X will enter service in 2024… presumably.
The latest news is that the aircraft will be completed by the end of 2023, and is therefore expected to enter service with its first customers in 2024. Emirates is likely to be the launch airline, even though the first aircraft built was registered to Lufthansa, which was initially approached to take on this role.
But in the meantime, questions remain, including whether further delays are to be expected, whether such an aircraft still makes sense in the current context, and whether Boeing will simply abandon the program.
On the face of it, 2024 is a reliable timeframe. The aircraft has now been flying for a year, and the postponement of entry into service has more to do with context than with purely technical considerations. The crisis has forced everyone to take their time, and if that’s not good for business, it’s hopefully a guarantee that Boeing will have time to sort out all the problems associated with launching a new aircraft in the meantime.
Do we need the 777X?
But whether such an aircraft makes sense in today’s context of declining traffic, doubts about recovery and ecological pressures to kill air travel is debatable.
As the saying goes, “forecasts are difficult, especially when they concern the future”, but we can venture to formulate certain hypotheses.
1°) Traffic growth will resume.
This will be at the end of 2021, early 2022, but it will resume, and once people have calmed down, we’ll also realize that it’s not possible to prevent people from traveling. There will be an environmental factor to take into account, but the airline industry has been doing this for a long time, and we’ll be questioning the logic of ultra-low-cost medium-haul, but in the long term the 777X market doesn’t seem to us to be concerned.
2°) There’s a market for very large aircraft
What put an end to the careers of the 747 and 380 was not their capacity, but the fact that they were four-engine aircraft in a world where twin-engine aircraft of the same capacity now provide the same services for much less money.
2°) There is a renewal market
Between the 777s, the 747s, the A380s, the A340s and even the A330s, there will be a large number of aircraft retiring for various reasons.
Some will not be replaced, or not immediately, while others will be replaced by smaller aircraft, but the A350-900, B787 and A330 Neo alone will not satisfy the need for larger aircraft.
3°) The market loves competition
Today, only the A350-1000 can compete with the 777X. The market doesn’t like monopolies, and some airlines are “married” to Boeing, while others don’t want to put all their eggs in one basket.
4°) Boeing is lucky in its misfortune
737 MAX crisis, 777X postponements, health crisis…Boeing has had one bad news after another. But the good news is that there’s a good chance it will arrive in 2024 with a new aircraft in a market that will have emerged from the turbulence, which is ultimately preferable to the original schedule that would have propelled the 777X into the crisis.
5°) Air travel is a long-term market
The airline business is a complicated one, requiring long-term planning and rapid short-term adjustment. The lifespan of an appliance is close to 40 years, or even more, and deliveries can take 5 to 10 years…so it’s important to anticipate lucidly, without being distracted by the emotions of the moment. Choosing an airline requires a projection of what the market will be like in 2030 or 2040, not what it will be like in 2022 or 2024. And even if the slightest crisis means adjusting, as we’ve seen, in record time. But once again, what will have killed the A380 and B747 is that they are four-engine aircraft, the crisis having merely been a catalyst.
Bottom line
We believe in the 777X and can’t wait to tell you all about our first flight on it. On Lufthansa, Emirates or whatever, in 2023, 2024 or 2025, but it will happen.
Will the 777X have the career it deserves? It’s too early to tell.
Image : B777X by BlueBarronPhoto via Shutterstock
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