Boom Supersonic resurrects the myth

We told you about it at the beginning of the summer: a startup, Boom Supersonic, plans to fly supersonic aircraft again as soon as 2029! It’s not the first time that a new player promises to revolutionize the air industry, and in general it never materializes at the industrial level.

But even if we had some doubts at the beginning, it looks very concrete. Enough so that, as we announced, United committed to 15 aircrafts and 35 in option, joined recently by American Airlines with an order for 20 aircrafts and 40 in option.

For the moment the first prototype has not yet flown so we won’t get overly excited but supersonic flight has never seemed so close to becoming a reality.

The A380 and the dawn of the super jumbos

The COVID precipitated the fall of the A380 and globally of the family of super jumbos of which it was one of the two representatives with the Boeing 747.

Many things have been said about the end of the A380 program, and we think that many people have perhaps been too quick to jump to conclusions. Yes, the A380 was a semi-failure, but it is not totally to blame.

Airbus has gambled on airport saturation, which has not yet happened but will happen one day. The European aircraft manufacturer has also bet on the development of hubs while the airlines have developed the point-to-point.

Then there is the question of the business model: the A380 was the ideal aircraft for an airline that operates almost exclusively long-haul flights in its hub. Which airline has feeder flights on long-haul wide-body aircrafts that feed long-haul wide-body aircrafts? Emirates mainly. And who was the biggest customer of the A380? Emirates.

The A380 only made economic sense for a few airlines and it vas visible. Air France, Lufthansa and British Airways have ordered some of them more out of economic patriotism than anything else. But for many reasons operating 10 units of a single model poses problems of economies of scale. So not only was the aircraft not made for these airlines, but they were operating it in suboptimal conditions.

Airbus can also blame the European airlines, which have ordered few A380s (but we can understand why) and have not turned them into the flagship aircraft that customers dream about and demand. The cabin deployed by Air France on its A380s and to a lesser extent by British Airways and Lufthansa was an insult to the feat achieved by Airbus engineers. The last two because they put the same cabin as on their other aircraft (with a deplorable business product at Lufthansa) and the first one because the A380 quickly found itself with a product inferior to the one that equips the retrofitted 777s after the release of the “Best” cabin that the A380 will never see.

And, last but not least, it was the ETOPS standard that killed the A380. ETOPS (Extended-range Twin-engine Operation Performance Standards)defines the maximum distance a twin-engine aircraft must be from a diversion point. In other words, its ability to reach an airport in case of engine failure.

When the A380 was designed and made its first flights, the planes were certified to the maximum ETOPS 180, so they could not be more than 3 hours (180 min) from an airport capable of receiving them. This amply justified the use of four-engine aircrafts for transatlantic or transpacific routes, for example. Two years later, in 2017, came the ETOPS 240 (4h) and then 270 certification. Today an A350 is ETOPS 370, so it can fly more than 6 hours from a diversion point.

These developments have simply made quadjets obsolete.

The airlines have thus planned to get rid of them earlier than expected, and when the COVID forced them to ground their fleets, many took the opportunity to put a definitive end to the operation of their four-engine aircraft, the A380 in particular.

No longer required by regulations, consuming more than its more recent competitors, not adapted to the model of many airlines, it is not tomorrow that the A380 risks having a successor.

And yet…

Emirates wants a successor for the A380

If the A380 has made one airline happy, it’s Emirates! And if the Emirates airline has understood that it will have to do without, it does not despair that the A380 will have a successor and is starting to put pressure on Airbus.

Its CEO, Tim Clarks, recently said “the math tells you that you need a big unit, much bigger than the one we have right now“. For him, given the growth in traffic and the scheduled retirement of the A380 by mid-2030, the airlines will need larger aircrafts to keep up with demand. “Even with multiple 787s and A350s busy flying around the world, I still don’t understand how you can keep up with this growth curve.“

For him, things are clear:it is possible to build an economically efficient successor to the A380using the latest generation engines and a fuselage made of composite materials. He even thinks that it is possible to achieve a gain of nearly 30% compared to current aircrafts.

Will it be enough to convince Airbus or Boeing to take the plunge? Who knows, but one thing is certain: there is already a customer ready to buy hundreds of them!

It’s a risky bet, and the outcome of the A380 program is proof of that, but as we said, Airbus has also had bad luck. Mistakes but also a question of timing. Because the growth is there and the saturation of the big hubs is more and more close.

In our opinion a new super jumbo will see the light of day. But not right away.

Bottom line

Two types of aircraft that were thought to have been abandoned may be making a comeback: the supersonic and the super jumbo. But nothing is done yet: the Boom Supersonic Overture has not yet made its first test flight, and there is no guarantee that Emirates will convince Airbus to give a successor to the A380.