One year after the start of the pandemic, vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 have begun. I almost said “finally” started, but if we thought time was long for billions of human beings, and if the specific context of France made us think that having set up approximation and tinkering as a health art, we’d have to wait until around 2030, we mustn’t lose sight of the fact that proposing a vaccine in such a short time is a scientific and industrial feat that must be applauded.
The vaccine as a ray of sunshine at the end of the tunnel
With the exception of a few die-hards, fewer in number than we might have thought, everyone sees or wants to see in this vaccine the glimmer of light that means we’re nearing the end of the tunnel.
The general population who want to live, go out, work, go back to bars, restaurants, theaters, gyms and more. And without a mask, of course.
Travelers who simply want to travel again for work, for themselves, to see their family or even just want to know that they have the ability to do so. And do it without masks, PCR tests or restrictions.
The industry in the broadest sense of the term – hoteliers, airlines, but also all those who gravitate around them, such as restaurants and bars – know that they will not be able to reopen, or not under optimal conditions.
Vaccines are good for health, good for the economy, good for the mood and should encourage us to believe in better days ahead.
We won’t baculate in the aftermath in a single shot
Expecting too much ends up in disappointment, and we need to be clear about our expectations. All the prohibitions and restrictions won’t come down overnight.
Firstly, because it’s not enough to vaccinate people, but to vaccinate enough people. This will take time.
Then, precisely because there’s no point in thinking about what the “after” will be like while we’re still a long way off and since if this pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that there’s no point in projecting months ahead. We can look ahead to dream and hope, but when it comes to deciding and implementing very operational and concrete things, the horizon is the week.
Finally, because I can’t help thinking that some people won’t give up so easily on the exceptional environment we live in today. Keeping some restrictions of freedom at the margins and knowing that others can be reactivated at the snap of a finger will reassure some managers. Making certain formerly exceptional measures the rule will reassure certain health professionals and hypochondriacs of all kinds. After all, it lasted a year, so why not?
Before setting people free, vaccinate
In any case, if there’s one thing that almost everyone agrees on, it’s that we can’t ” set people free ” without vaccinating.
And to vaccinate, you need several things.
First of all, a vaccine must exist and a vaccination policy must be put in place, along with the logistics that go with it. This is where we are.
Secondly, and most importantly, that the population decides to vaccinate, unless we have a totalitarian policy on the subject, which doesn’t seem to be on the agenda.
To meet this second condition, the population must at least be willing and confident.
Will means being able to say to yourself that this is a step towards a normal life in the medium term. That even if things don’t change immediately, it’s only if everyone do it on their side that in the end we’ll have enough vaccinesd people to change things. That requires at least a few tangible ideas of what might happen next.
Confidence means, at the very least, that we feel the authorities have confidence in the vaccine. How can you encourage hundreds of millions if not billions of people to get vaccinated if they feel that the authorities themselves don’t believe in it?
Vaccine or PCR?
We can imagine a future without masks, without barrier gestures, without restrictions on movement, without confinement, without curfews…and we’ll get there. But the question is, where is the tipping point between today’s situation and the moment when restrictions start to ease one after the other?
For us, this point is clear: this is the day when the vaccination certificate will replace the PCR test.
To achieve this, vaccinations must be traceable and certified. Solutions are on the way, as we saw with the IATA Travel Pass, even if – and we’ll be talking about this again shortly – the proliferation of competing initiatives and the fact that, in the long term, you could be vaccinated by non-“certified” players outside these programs could pose a problem.
But first and foremost, the authorities in all countries will have to decide that vaccination exempts from testing.
In recent days, a number of countries have announced measures for vaccinated passengers, including the lifting of quarantine.
While we can expect this list to grow quickly, and we can argue that it’s still early days, the fact remains that (to date)..:
– Although vaccination campaigns have been underway for almost two months, only a handful of countries have decided to lift quarantine measures for vaccinated people.
– Depending on the country, having had COVID exempts you from vaccination, provided you can show proof of infection (blood tests). Today, for example, Iceland and Estonia exempt people previously infected with the virus from vaccination.
– In Cyprus, people who have been vaccinated are exempt from PCR testing and quarantine.
– In Estonia, quarantine is lifted for people vaccinated…less than 6 months ago. Would the vaccine lose its effectiveness after 6 months?
– In Thailand, there is talk of lifting the quarantine for vaccinated people, but not of the fate of the PCR test.
– In the Seychelles it’s even “funnier”. Vaccinated passengers are exempt from quarantine, but not from PCR testing. Worse still, once the vast majority of the local population has been vaccinated (around mid-March), the country will once again be open to all, there will be no more quarantine and no distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers, as the PCR test will remain compulsory for all.
The messy story of how vaccines are taken into account
So to sum up
1°) In some countries (almost all to date), the vaccine does not exempt you from PCR testing.
2°) In some countries, vaccination exempts you from the PCR test.
3°) Worse still, in most countries, there’s no information on the start of a debate on how to adapt restrictions for vaccinated people.
Theoretically, a French passenger, vaccinated in France with a vaccine approved by France and Europe, can travel to Poland without a PCR test, but will have to provide one to return to France. I can’t even imagine the situation where, out of overzealousness, a PCR test would be requested when boarding in Paris, even though the destination doesn’t require it.
A French passenger who proves he or she has had the COVID can return to Estonia or Iceland without a vaccine, but will have to take a PCR test to travel to other countries or return to France.
No benefit to be gained from vaccination and silences that sow doubt
Not only there seems to be no roadmap for “a vaccinated world”, and while it’s understandable that countries are waiting for more people to be vaccinated so that it’s time to amend the current rules, we’re also starting to see how, like in the great age of closing/reopening skies in spring countries to develop their local policies in a scattered fashion.
At a time when it’s vital to make everyone understand the importance of getting vaccinated, there are too many deafening silences that may lead the public to believe that the authorities still have doubts about the vaccine. Otherwise why don’t they communicate? Not to announce the end of testing tomorrow, but at least to say that once a critical mass has been reached and that….. testing for vaccinated people will be abandoned. To say that there are plans, options on the table, that they’re thinking about it.
This silence is all the more penalizing in terms of communication and incentives, given that some countries are making progress on the subject.
One can always say that it’s too early and that it will come in its own time, but in the meantime these silences do not help vaccine policies, are not an incentive to get vaccinated, sow doubtand give material to the professionals of fake news and conspiracy, which we really don’t need today.
It’s high time governments aligned their measures, decided on a common course and communicated it. In the meantime, it will be hard to explain that the vaccine is necessary and that we believe in it if it doesn’t at least dispense us from getting tested.
Unless they really don’t believe in it.
Image : COVID vaccine by PalSand via Shutterstock
