COVID: Will the vaccine be mandatory to fly?

The first COVI-19 vaccines are almost available and the first mass vaccination campaigns should begin in the coming weeks. For many it is a sign of hope in the recovery of air travel and, conversely, others are concerned that the vaccine will become a prerequisite for travel in the future.

COVID vaccine to restore confidence in travel

Certainly, the arrival of the vaccine had become the only thing that could really get the travel industry going again.

Firstly, because it restores people’s confidence in travel. No more fear of flying, no more fear of being in a possible infected area, no more fear of being in contact with others.

But also because it restores the confidence of the destinations in these same travelers: there will be no more fear that a tourist from the end of the world will re-import the virus in an area that was previously protected or that would have succeeded in reducing the pandemic.

If everyone has an interest in seeing the vaccine become widespread, who can impose it?

Not all destinations will require the vaccine

Can a country impose a vaccine on its visitors? Yes, of course. Will this be the case? Probably not.

To date, there is no question of imposing the vaccine on the local population. Because it is the best way to create a wave of protest and because it is practically difficult to implement outside countries with little regard for human rights.

Without going into detail, the possibility of making a vaccine mandatory also depends on local legislation. In the case of France, and even if the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights would suggest that it is an attack on the integrity of the person, the Constitutional Council validates the principle of mandatory vaccination.

It will not be possible to impose the vaccine on visitors if it is not imposed on locals, whereas it is obvious that if it is imposed on locals it will be imposed on visitors.

Moreover, the question arises as to how to check that the visitors are well and truly vaccinated. When you are a relatively closed country like China or an island like Australia, the entry points are easy to control.

What about Europe? You can enter most countries by plane, car, train, boat… Not as easy as controlling the Australian borders. A passenger could arrive from a “vaccine-free” country and travel relatively easily to a country with mandatory vaccination. What is needed is a concerted policy within the EU to align “internal” positions and focus on the external borders. Considering what we have seen in the last few months, this is a more than unlikely option in the medium term.

And then there is the fear of “garbage” destinations. Faced with the refusal of some to be vaccinated or the slowness of the process, could some countries be tempted to boost the recovery of tourism by being less demanding in terms of vaccine requirements? It’s totally possible even if it will never be presented in that light.

If the vaccine is vital to the re-launch of leisure and business tourism and the economy in general we don’t see most countries imposing it to enter their territory, especially since in the medium term the requirement of a recent PCR test could be another way to show proof of good health. Indeed, no vaccine does not mean no requirements.

Can airlines impose the vaccine?

If there is one sector that looks forward to the vaccine, it is the airline industry. To boost demand, to remove constraints, to increase available destinations…

Whether the airlines will impose the vaccine is another matter. Today this does not seem to be the trend.

Qantas made a big noise when it said it would make the vaccine mandatory. Does it have the right to do so? Yes, it just has to change the contract of carriage. But Qantas operates in the specific context of Australia, an ” island that is easy to close and what makes sense and is efficient for some does not for others.

At Ryanair they say it loud and clear: they will not impose the vaccine. The same goes for KLM. And this is the message that is heard almost everywhere, at least today.

It is certainly for the airlines to weigh the pros and cons, at least in the medium term. It will take time for everyone to be vaccinated and the priority populations in terms of vaccines are not those that are in their core target, at least in their most profitable clientele: the premium long haul. Imposing the vaccine is to cut off your wings even before the real recovery.

Then there is certainly the fear of “garbage” airlines that would play the card of the lowest bidder to, once again, capture the largest possible market share.

Imagine that a destination is indeed served by some airlines that require the vaccine and others that do not? For the vaccinated people the choice is clear but if they are too few it is a commercial suicide.

It is important to keep in mind this transitional period that constitutes the vaccination period, which will last a full year. In the meantime, in the same way that “COVID-Free” flights with mandatory testing are beginning to multiply, we may see some flights reserved for vaccinated people with the promise of fewer constraints, better service, and a better experience (wearing a mask on long-haul flights is a real constraint…but on the other hand, COVID Free flights are not Mask Free to date…).

The question of proof of the vaccine

But once you’ve said all that, the main point remains: how to provide reliable proof that you have been vaccinated. We have seen traffics of false negative PCR tests at Roissy…

This is a real issue at a time of personal data protection and let’s remember that there is no global data sharing policy between States for passports to date, except for a few local and/or bilateral initiatives. This approach will also raise questions about the protection of personal data and privacy, not to mention that not everyone has a passport.

It would therefore be necessary to create a document other than the passport but issued by a trusted third party.

Today the IATA (The International Air Transport Association) Is working on an application that would allow health care providers to securely upload COVID test results and vaccination certificates to a user’s accountThese documents must be linked to the traveler’s identity to avoid abuse. Through the app, users could then show these documents to airlines and airports to facilitate travel.

Non-governmental trusted third party…IATA’s approach is very appealing and would offer the advantage of a fast diffusion. This is the most credible approach we see today.

The vaccine: a de facto standard

In the same way that the entire population will not be vaccinated overnight, we do not see the vaccine becoming mandatory for travel in the near future, at least not in a generalized way.

The difficulty will lie in managing the transitional period until the changeover, when we will have a critical mass of vaccinated people.

Ironically, the fewer people who are vaccinated, the more it will be economic and commercial suicide to impose the vaccine, and the more people we have, the less necessary it will be!

What we think at TravelGuys:

There will be countries and airlines that will impose the vaccine from the beginning but this will remain marginal
As more and more people are vaccinated, we will see “with vaccine” and “without vaccine” courses coexist. Airlines and destination countries will implement specific measures and experiences for vaccinated passengers. No test (of course), less controls on arrival, travel without mask and reserved frequencies (e.g. 1 flight out of 3 reserved for vaccinated people on a Paris-Frankfurt flight, one frequency per day on NYC…)
Travelers’ decision to be vaccinated will be dictated less by government injunctions than by the promise of the lifting of many constraints on travel.

To put it more simply: the vaccine will not be a mandatory condition for travel in the sense that it will not be imposed on a large scale either by the destinations or by the airlines. But it will become a de facto standard by the sole will of travelers who will want to make their life easier.

And if you want the exclusively legal view of a lawyer we recommend this excellent article.

Photo : covid vaccine by Fit Ztudio via Shutterstock