Will the A220 be the star single-aisle aircraft of the recovery?

It is not known when air transport will restart and at what pace, but one thing is certain: it will resume gradually, chaotically and with reduced capacity.

Due to the current crisis, the airlines have of course grounded almost their entire fleet but have also decided to anticipate the retirement of some aircraft. A380s, A340s, B747s, B767s and even some “old” A320s: some of these will never fly again and will go to the spare parts market or even be bought at a low price by a start-up airline (which is unlikely to survive, and in any case they prefer modern, efficient aircraft) or an airline which, when the crisis is over, will see it as a good way of developing for a low price. Or they will simply be scrapped.

Very often these were aircraft that had to be replaced by more efficient aircraft that had to be delivered within 2 years or more and continued to fly due to a high demand in the meantime. With little hope of demand recovering in the next 12 to 24 months, you might as well fly profitably, at least when you can fly.

But the airlines are also thinking about the future. After removing unwanted equipment, they must ensure that we will have the aircrafts they want when the time comes!

Air Baltic targets growth after COVID-19

Thus, contrary to what we see today – or ahead of time – Air Baltic has asked Airbus to accelerate delivery of the 28 A220s it still has on order (it has already received 22) because it wants to be ready for the recovery, even thinking that this will help it to gain market share. It is thus willing to accelerate its fleet plan by several years.

But beware: the Air Baltic case is quite specific. It is a medium-sized (or even small) regional airline that had a number of older aircraft (such as Dash-8s). It is therefore not inappropriate for it to think about “growth” because in the end it only has a small fleet today and the agility/profitability duo can help it to take advantage of the slightest tremor in the market. And given that Norwegian in the region is in dire straits and SAS’ health is a concern…

But in the medium-haul market it is clear that a fleet of 140-seat A220s will be better for a while than 180-seat A320s! At least for what may be a long time. Cheaper to operate, simpler to deploy, an asset for making bets, trying new lines and adapting to a sluggish market.

A chance for Air France?

In the same vein, one might think that Air France had the right idea in placing a massive order for A220s. At the time we said it looked like a form of undisclosed attrition (which is not a bad thing in itself as long as it is assumed) and maybe tomorrow it will look like an genius idea. Deliveries were due to start in September 2021, which is not bad timing, and we will see whether the aircraft will replace A321/A319s as planned or whether the context will mean that A320s or A321s with unnecessary capacity will be replaced as a priority.

We will of course be closely following the cancellation/acceleration of orders, which will tell us more about the strategies and bets of the airlines, but the A220 has everything to become even more attractive today than it already is, at least on the intra-European medium-haul route. It is also likely that to a lesser extent Delta Airlines, JetBlue and Air Canada in North America, three other major customers of the A220 will take advantage of the flexibility it offers, at least at the time of restart.

However, in our view there is still some doubt as to whether the A220 is ideally suited to the post COVID-19 recovery period. One may indeed wonder whether it is adapted to a context of social distancing that is likely to be imposed, even though one hears voices saying that the air renewal system in the cabins makes it partly unnecessary.

An A320 has 6 seats abreast, 2 blocks of 3. By removing the middle seat from each block, 4 out of 6 passengers can travel, thus losing 33% of the aircraft’s capacity.

The A220 is available in two configurations: 2+2 and 2+3.

In a 2+2 configuration, one seat per block should be blocked and only two passengers per row should travel. That is a 50% loss.

In a 2+3 configuration, one seat should be blocked on the 2 block and one on the 3 block, i.e. 2 seats out of 5. 40% loss.

It remains to be seen whether the gains in operating costs can compensate for this gap…

Photo : A220 Air Baltic by Telsek via Shutterstock