Faced with the embargo imposed by the international community, the Russian aviation industry risks falling apart if it does not become self-sufficient. Time will tell if this sequence marked the beginning of its collapse or if it was the boost that allowed it to move up a gear.

Embargo and unmaintained aircrafts

Indeed, the more time passes, the more critical the situation becomes under the pressure of the embargo. We have already mentioned that like most of airlines in the world, Russian airlines lease their planes and their owners have asked for their planes to be returned to them. Of course, they refused to return them and continue to operate without paying their rents and without their owners having much chance of ever seeing them again.

But their problems are not over.

No need to explain to you that an aircraft is very demanding in terms of maintenance and that for the reasons we have just explained the Russian fleet is now very poorly maintained and we start to see flying wrecks. Moreover, the embargo deprives the airlines of spare parts and they are reduced to cannibalize certain aircrafts to find parts to repair others. And this affects things as simple as tires that need to be changed about every 300 landings….when a medium-haul aircraft makes 3 to 4 flights a day it goes fast.

A situation that is not sustainable in the long term and is not even sustainable today.

And even if the war were to end tomorrow and the sanctions were lifted, it would make no difference. There would be so many blanks in the maintenance logs that these aircrafts would never be allowed to fly outside Russia.

It was therefore urgent for the Russian airlines to find a more sustainable solution and this one is quite obvious. There is a Russian aeronautical industry, so why not rely on it and make it grow?

A large order of Russian aircrafts for Aeroflot

Aeroflot has just placed a large order for 323 locally built single-aisle aircraft, including Sukhoi Superjets, Irkut MC-21s and Tupolev TU-214s.

An obviousness? Not so much. It cannot be said that Aeroflot has so far been very patriotic in terms of economy. To date, the airline owns only 5 Sukhoi SSJ-100 for a fleet of 183 aircraft! The rest being of course composed exclusively of Airbus and Boeing. Half of the fleet of all Russian airlines comes from these two manufacturers (710/1300).

This is a major strategic change!

But the question is whether this strategy is sustainable.

What production capacities?

The first question is whether Russian aircraft manufacturers will be able to produce enough. It is not possible to go from a production that is not confidential but has nothing to do with that of Airbus or Boeing to being able to supply all the country’s airlines very quickly! For example, just to mention Aeroflot, two years ago the airline unveiled an ambitious plan to move upmarket with a cabin that should allow it to aim for the 5 Skytrax stars and growth to aim at a fleet of 600 aircraft in 2028 compared to less than 200 today.

It is certain that the current context makes these plans obsolete, but the challenge remains important when we know that Russian aircraft manufacturers produce about ten units of each aircraft per year today.

In addition, it will be necessary to acquire this industrial tool quickly. As we have seen it is not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow that the planes of Russian airlines will fall into pieces, it has already started. According to the Russian authorities, we are talking about a production of 110 planes per year in 2025 and 500 in 2050! It’s already tomorrow. In comparison, Airbus aims to deliver 720 aircraft by 2022.

If we remain on an industrial logic, another question arises. Assuming that Russian aircraft manufacturers manage to produce enough aircraft all at once, what will happen to this production capacity in the medium/long term once demand has been met on a market which, by definition, is not expandable and has no external outlets?

Of course we are talking about a distant horizon and it will be time to see when the time comes but still.

Which suppliers?

The construction of an aircraft involves a host of subcontractors and we are talking about a highly specialized global market. Designing an aircraft is one thing, but building it requires sourcing from a large number of businesses and not always national ones.

Today Russian aircraft, like others, embed a large number of parts from foreign manufacturers, starting with something as basic as tires. And we’re not even talking about engines.

Is there today an ecosystem of Russian manufacturers capable of producing all the necessary parts? Probably not. Is it possible to create it? Yes, but it will take time and just making counterfeits of foreign products is very dangerous.

What aircrafts?

Although they do not have a range as wide as that of Airbus or Boeing, Russian manufacturers today have a range of aircraft that should be sufficient to cover medium-term needs in a market mainly limited to domestic flights.

But this is not enough for the future. Not a single long-haul twin-aisle in the catalog! So of course the long haul is not a major concern for Russian airlines today, but it will become one day a sovereignist approach of the aircraft persists after the war.

And designing an aircraft from scratch takes time.

What pilots?

With new aircraft comes the need to train pilots. Moreover, and as surprising as it is in the current context, Aeroflot plans to hire no less than 3500 new pilots. It takes time.

And when it comes to training pilots, you need simulators. Here again, they will have to be built.

What funding?

Last but not least, all this will have to be financed. Both on the airline side and on the manufacturer side.

Aeroflot’s recently placed order is valued at $23 billion excluding Tupolev. This is no small thing and in the current economic climate it is just an unbearable burden.

It will be largely by state aid but, once again, in the current economic context it is illusory to think that the state alone will be able to finance all the restructuring of the industry, from airlines to manufacturers. And since access to foreign capital is cut off…

Bottom line: the swan song of Russian aviation

The line followed by the government and the Russian airlines is not surprising because it is the only one possible. Now it remains to be seen if it is sustainable.

In the short term there is no doubt that Russia will manage to tinker. In the long run, it will most likely not work. First of all because it takes time and the Russians don’t have this time. Secondly, because money is needed and, unlike airplanes, it does not fall from the sky, especially in an economy under embargo.

The only way for this strategy to be viable is for it to serve only as a seedbed until the crisis is over, which would allow access to foreign markets for both aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and for it to serve as a growth relay.

But even in the case of a near end to the war, which is highly unlikely, Russia cannot be expected to regain its place in the world economy for a long time.

The Russian strategy, in a normal context, would have made no sense, but would have made it possible to lay the foundations of a strong, independent and sovereign aeronautical industry. Today it looks more like a swan song unless things change quickly.

Image : Sukhoi Superjet 100 Aeroflot by via Shutterstock