As we all know, Asia and the Middle East are becoming increasingly important in the air transport sector, as these regions develop in terms of destinations and hubs. While Asia was expected to become the center of gravity for air transport in 2039, COVID has saved it 20 years.
A century of air transport: eastward bound!
The IATA has calculated the center of gravity of world air transport since its inception. This is achieved by weighting the geographical coordinates of all airports by the number of seats departing from each airport each year.
Unsurprisingly, the story begins in Tampa, where the first commercial flight took off in 1914.
Unsurprisingly, its evolution follows a straight line further north than the equator, showing that there are many more destinations and globally more submerged lands in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere.
Unsurprisingly, it’s moving eastwards as air transport has become a transatlantic issue, and as Asia and the Middle East have taken an ever-increasing share of the pie.
And according to predictions, the center of gravity of air transport will be in Asia in 2039, whereas it was in the Gulf in 2019.
But COVID acted as a catalyst!
COVID saves air transport 20 years
Then came the COVID! And as China relaunched its domestic market while the rest of the world remained grounded, projections were met almost 20 years ahead of schedule.
Of course, this won’t last. According to IATA, it will return to a more or less normal course once the pandemic is over, before China once again becomes the world’s leading market in 2025.
By 2039, the world’s biggest markets will be China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand. If the IATA doesn’t explain further, we can assume that the economic and demographic development of these countries will leave the “old” European and American aeronautical continents behind.
More than just projections for air transport, this document suggests changes in the geographical and demographic weight of the regions, and may not be reassuring for some.
Image : earth globe by FoxPictures via Shutterstock
